Bull Run

A bull run is a sustained period during which the price of an asset or a whole market rises strongly, usually accompanied by growing optimism, rising trading volumes and new participants entering the market. The phrase is used across share, commodity and property markets, but it is particularly common in crypto, where prices can multiply within months. A bull run is generally shorter and more intense than a bull market, which describes a broader, longer-lasting upward trend.

Bull runs are driven by a mix of fundamentals, such as strong earnings or new adoption, and sentiment, including fear of missing out and speculation. They are often followed by sharp corrections or a bear market. Market participants who expect a bull run to continue are described as bullish or as bulls, while the late stages of some runs can turn into an economic bubble.

Picture a snowball rolling down a hill. It starts small, but as it rolls it picks up more snow, which makes it heavier and faster, which helps it gather even more snow. At some point it hits a flat patch or a rock, and the run is over.

A bull run works in a similar way. Prices start rising for some reason, perhaps good news or new buyers. Rising prices attract attention, news stories and more buyers, which push prices higher still. Eventually the supply of new buyers dries up, or something unexpected happens, and the run stops, sometimes gently and sometimes with a crash.

Common drivers include:

• Easy money. Low interest rates and abundant liquidity make borrowing cheap and push investors towards riskier assets.
• Fundamental news. Strong economic data, earnings growth, new technology or, in crypto, events such as exchange-traded fund approvals can attract new capital.
• Supply changes. In bitcoin, the halving that reduces new supply is often discussed as a factor, though its effect on prices is debated.
• Momentum and sentiment. Rising prices draw in buyers who follow trends, amplified by media coverage and social media, a pattern related to FOMO.
• Leverage. Borrowed money and derivatives magnify buying power on the way up, adding to price rises.

Crypto markets have experienced several major bull runs. In 2017, bitcoin rose from under $1,000 at the start of the year to nearly $20,000 in December, alongside a boom in initial coin offerings. In 2020 and 2021, bitcoin passed $60,000 amid low interest rates, institutional buying and booms in decentralized finance and NFTs. A further run took bitcoin above $100,000 in late 2024 after the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Each run was followed by large falls: bitcoin lost more than 70% of its value after the 2017 and 2021 peaks. Smaller coins often rise more steeply during bull runs and fall further afterwards. Many traders talk of an "altcoin season" late in a run, when money rotates from bitcoin into altcoins.

Analysts often describe bull runs in stages. Early on, prices rise quietly while sentiment is still cautious. In the middle stage, broader participation and media coverage push prices higher. In the late stage, speculation dominates: newcomers flood in, leverage rises, prices of low-quality assets surge and talk of a "new era" spreads. Indicators watched include trading volumes, funding rates on perpetual futures, new account sign-ups, search interest and measures such as the MVRV ratio. None reliably identifies the top in advance.

Bull runs carry particular dangers for investors. Late buyers may pay high prices just before a reversal, and false breakouts can turn into a bull trap. Leverage that magnifies gains also magnifies losses, and rapid falls can trigger forced liquidations. Scams and low-quality projects flourish when optimism is high, and pump-and-dump schemes exploit new participants. Investors who buy at the peak may take years to recover, if they recover at all. A disciplined approach, such as setting allocation limits, avoiding excessive leverage and taking profits according to a plan, can reduce the risk of being caught out when a run ends. Past bull runs are not a guide to future ones, and no market rises indefinitely.

Bull runs also affect the wider economy. Rising asset prices make holders feel wealthier and can boost spending, a pattern known as the wealth effect, while companies find it easier to raise money by issuing shares or tokens. Regulators and central banks watch for signs that rising prices are being fuelled by borrowed money, since a sudden reversal can spread losses to lenders. In crypto, exchanges and lenders that expanded aggressively during bull runs have repeatedly been the first to fail when prices turned.